Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Small Bounce to end the Month

The Dow rallied back up to it's 5 day moving average before selling off. Tomorrow will be an important trading day. I think we will end up going down from here.

DIA- 60 Minute
If we do continue to rally however I don't think we will go far. The 150 day moving averages of all the major indices are sloping down. It is very tough sustain rallies when the long term moving averages are positioned as they are.

S&P 500
The picture is the same for almost every industry. Of the major industries I track, only 3 are above their 150 DMA. Those would be Gold Miners, Retailers, and Internet companies. Of those three, on the Gold Miners have a 150 DMA that is not sloping steeply downward.

I think it's likely that the market sells off soon. I will note however that there are some industries that could buck the trend. Some of the more oversold industries, such as financials and commodity names, could continue to rally quite a ways before they start to flirt with their long term moving averages.

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