Don't get too Excited

I heard a lot of chatter this weekend about that pop we got late last Friday. People are saying we completed a reversal day (Which we really didn't), and since we're so oversold we're going to get a huge bounce. I disagree. While I do concede we are very oversold and a rally is likely over the next week or so, I don't necessarily think it will happen on Monday. We did not get any climactic selling last week that would have signaled a bottom, other than an increase in NYSE New Lows. We still have a declining 5 day moving average and are within the downtrend channel that has existed for about a month. If we do get a bounce on Monday I think it will be short lived. I'll be looking for some sort of capitulation to identify the "real" tradeable bottom.

S&P 500