S&P 500
There are a couple of things that are needed in order for a bottom to be put in. We need a spike in the VIX, NYSE New Lows, and the Decliners/Advancers ratio. The CPC ratio and the McClellan Oscillator also need to be in oversold territory.
We are starting to get spikes in the NYSE New Lows and the Decliners/Advancers ratio. We still need to see a spike in the VIX as well as oversold conditions in the market oscillators. I think that if we get another day or two of hard selling, we could have those conditions on our hands.
This chart was based off of Cobra's Market Top/Bottom Watch.
Good post. I have no idea where the bottom will be. But I'm not hopeful its now (although a brief rally is always possible)
ReplyDeleteI just keep thinking about what someone said about the Great Depression. "Just when we thought it was over, it was only just beginning."
Commercial real estate is plummeting. GM is going BK. GE!! may go BK. Toyota needs a bailout (I never would have believed that possible) Wells Fargo a single digit midget and JPM not far behind. Unemployment, no matter the market reaction today, is growing at breakneck speeds.
None of that spells "bottom"
I think your Mean Reversion chart is the best bet. We may likely overshoot to 4000 Dow and 450 S&P. Just a guess, but as good as any.
"Wells Fargo a single digit midget and JPM not far behind"
ReplyDeleteHaha thats a nice quote.
Ya there are so many things going on it's hard to predict where the market is going. I think if this market has taught us anything, it's that shorter term trading and staying nimble is the way to go.