Possible Short Opportunity

The market has had a nice little rally over the past month and a half, and began selling off some yesterday. While looking over some charts I ran into Tesoro, which looks like a pretty good short candidate. The stock has rallied over 100% from it's November lows and has run into some resistance. First, it's trading right around it's declining 150 day moving average. It closed slightly above that level today, but a move back below it would be bearish. More importantly however, is the horizontal resistance line I have drawn on the chart. This resistance was prior support that tested and held in July, August, and September. It finally broke below that level in October, and last Monday was the first time it has been retested. Stochastics show that it is overbought, so I would wait until they cross back below 80. At that point I'd look to short it with a stop in around $15.50. I think this thing could potentially go to 9, so the risk/reward ratio looks like it should be pretty good.

Tesoro Corp (TSO)